Mobile Voter - Txt:Politic

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DeclareYourself.com served over 1million registration forms prior to ‘04 election.
83% of those who downloaded forms say that they registered to vote. 76% of downloaders said that they vote in the election. 48% of downloaders were 25 and under. 64% are under 30. 40% are part-time students. 29% are college undergrads.

The data show that “Getting young people to register is most critical to boosting their turnout. A majority (59%) of downloaders under 2 who didn’t vote say registration problems such as missing the registration deadline or not receiving an absentee ballot in time were mainly responsible for their not following through the ranks of voters. All but a few of those who got over the registration hurdle say they voted (92%).”

People who didn’t register have less formal education.

TV & radio ads were most effective in reaching youth (52%), 26% via the internet – re: declareyourself’s voter reg program.

Top issues:
21% iraq
21% moral values
16% economy and jobs
12% terrorism

Source: The Declare Yourself 2004 Campaign Evaluation: Reaching the Emerging Electorate. Nov. 2004. http://www.declareyourself.com/press/PDFs/report04/DYCampaignEvaluationSurveyREPORT(Nov2004).pdf

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18-25yr old survey
Gen Y: asserts its individualism, yet shares common views of tolerance and community.
Above all else, they value privacy.

Over 80% have cell phones and 22% use them as their only phone.
38% text message. 16% mobile photos. Uses such as receiving news, coupon, or checking movie listings do not appeal.

Coming of Age in America. Polimetrrix Youth Monitor.
http://www.greenbergresearch.com/publications/reports/ym1.pdf
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2004 youth turnout
~ 44% for 18-24 yr olds (~11 million)
~ 50% for 18-29 yr olds (~20 million)

2000 youth turnout
~ 36.5% 18-24 (~9 million)
~ 42.5% 18-29 (~17 million)

Youth share of the 2004 electorate
18-24: 10%
18-29: 18.4%

Source: Circle: Youth Voter turnout 1992-2004: Estimates from Exit Polls.
http://www.civicyouth.org
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“Young people are not apathetic. They care deeply about key political issues and they believe that elections matter. Nearly 2/3rds say that they will ‘definitely’ vote.”

4 of 10 do not identify with a political party. Many are turned off by the 2 party system and want a viable 3rd party.

“Candidates who ignore young voters lose”

Young people are mostly centrists whose votes are up for grabs.
18-24: 26.8 million in US more than 80% size of the senior population

among young voters with college ed, 52% voted. And 69% of graduates.

Conservative students tend to be more politically active than liberal peers.

“The single most important factor in determining whether or not a young person votes is if his or ger parents vote.”

“The process of voting is difficult to navigate…” young people often “decide to participate late in the campaign. For young people away at school, submitting an absentee ballot can be confusing and difficult…Nearly 1/3rd of college students say they do not know how to request an absentee ballot… 92% believe more of their peers wold vote ‘if the process of registering and voting by absentee ballot were made easier.”

To get youth involved, they do not need to be shamed into voting – they need to see the route to get involved to make change in their communities and made to know that their vote is important.

College students are more likely to vote and easier to find than those not in college.

Most effective outreach tactics are those with a personal touch.
· door to door: 8-10% increase – esp when peer to peer
· Calls from a volunteer: 3-5% - calls made during the week before election are more effective than calls made earlier in the cycle.
· Professional phone banks: 0%
· Leaflets: 1%
· Unsolicited email: 0%

Young people are turning away from traditional media. But youth listen to radio a lot.

Media tactics:
· be creative & have a sense of humor
· generate free media in youth targeted outlets
· use the internet
· use cellphones “collecting cell phone numbers form young supporters may prove the most effective way to reach and mobilize them.”

Orgs to add to list:
· new voters project
· declare yourself
· wwe smackdown your vote
· youth vote coalition
· mtv’s choose or loose campaign
· campaign for young voters

Source: Harvard U. Institute of Politics. Guide to Reaching Young Voters
http://www.innovations.harvard.edu/showdoc.html?id=5047
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youth turnout in 2004
youth voted much higher in battleground states
turnout under 25yrs old was 20% lower (in 2002, was 31% lower) – hypothesis that all of the efforts aimed at youth had an effect:
“current research shows that youth participate when they are asked to do so.”

Source: Circle: Youth voter turnout in the states during the 2004 presidential and 2002 midterm elections. July 05. http://www.civicyouth.org
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In 04
Students actively followed the campaign (85%)
90% were registered to vote – 90% of these say they voted – this is very high compared to non-college students.
turnout was higher among those registered at their college address

Students themselves were good mobilizers. 62% say that they encouraged or helped someone to vote.

Contacting college students can be difficult for the parties because campuses are more or less closed and students move around a lot.

Students were much more likely to vote absentee.
71% who voted had to show an ID
Few students found it difficult to vote – or to request an absentee ballot.

55% voted for kerry. 41% for bush
top issues:
21.6 iraq
17.6 economy
14.8 terrorism
25.7 moral values
10.3 educations
3 health care
2.1 taxes

a significant minority of students wish to vote on their college campus (rather than absentee)
Source: circle: college students in the 2004 election. Nov. 04. Nov 04
http://www.civicyouth.org
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Easier voting methods increase youth turnout
Substantially more likely to vote if they are able to vote on election day (14% boost). Also if there was unrestricted absentee voting, and mail balloting.

These methods also have an effect on how campaigns contact voters – more likely to mobilize in states that have same day reg.

“when people are mobilized they are more likely to vote.”
Circle: easier voting methods boost youth turnout. Feb ‘03

Oregon: has an all-mail ballot system
Six states have election day registration
North Dakota does not have a registration requirement
“younger adults were more likely to report that they did not vote in the 2000 election b/c they were too busy or had conflicting work or school schedules.”

Source: Circle: Easier voting methods boost youth turnout: Feb 03.
http://www.civicyouth.org
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Young people are especially prominent in online campaigns. Not as popular as Tv and trad media, but gaining as these other media are declining.

Weekly email and text messages are strongly opposed.

“in general, young people tend to prefer communications that one can choose to receive (‘optin’) over the ones that are simply sent to people”

Source: circle: young people and political campaigning on the internet. Jan 04
http://www.civicyouth.org
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students entering college have become increasingly politically polarized.
Middle-of-the road remains the most popular political category at 46.4 %
Interest in politics is on the rise (although less than in the 60s). Keeping up with political affairs is critical for 34%.

85.7 % used a personal computer on a frequent basis. However. Differences based on race persist. 15% point spread exists in rates of computer usge. Disparities in technological preparedness have widened over time – esp among African Americans. Differences minimized at higher income levels but exacerbated at lower levels. “these results suggest that little or no progress has been made in bridging the ‘digital divide’ since it gained national attention in the 90s”

Source: Higher Education Research Institute. The American Freshman. National Norms for Fall 2004. Political extremes and tech disparities.
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Local parties are dropping the ball with young voters - both dems and repubs. Local parties have potential to rejuvenate young peoples political participation, ntu need to innovate – need to “get hip”

Political participation has been highest when local political parties were vibrant.
Stephanie Snachez: director of the college democrats of America

Local parties see 3 causes of low youth turnout:
1) poor high school civics education
2) negative campaigning
3) media has turned youth away

Young voters rarely on the mind or in the tactic mix for local parties. Parties are short sighted – winning the election at hand, vs. Building a long term broad based following – which, of course, starts with youth.

70% of local campaign respondents said that they spend less than 10% of time on non-election activities.

Most find it difficult to reach youth.
“Young voters are critical to the party’s future” – Drew Ryan – RNC

“simply put, traditional approaches to GOTV are ineffective with the new generation…. In order to truly connect with young voters, the parties must develop novel approaches. It is time for local parties to step outside the box.”

Source: Circle. Throwing a better party: local mobilizing institutions and the youth vote. April 04.
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18-25yr olds in NJ. Election day calls generated a statistically significant increase in voter turnout.
These results are localized to those with an existing commitment to vote (those who, on a previous call, said that they planned to vote): from 16.9% to 27.5%.

No statistical increase from:
· Messages left on answering machine
· Msgs left with roomate

Findings suggest that it’s important to establish pre-election contact with young voters – and targeting election day reminders to those who are most receptive to this type of message.

Circle – effects of an election day voter mobilization campaign targeting young voters. . sept 04. http://www.civicyouth.org
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Unrestricted absentee voting= you don’t have to provide an excuse.
12 states allow 17yr olds o vote in primaries if they will be 18 before the election.
Election day registration increases youth turnout by
· 14% in presidential elections
· 4 % in midterms
Also increases the likelihood that young people will be contacted by a political party by:
· 11% in pres elections
· 18% in midterms

Voting by mail increases turnout by 40% during presidential election

Unrestricted absentee voting increases turnout by 4% in midterms

Election day laws that make voting more accessible increase rates especially among youth and less educated.

In states that mailed sample ballots before 2000 election, turnout was:
· 7% higher among 18-24yr olds
· 4% higher among those w/o high school diploma
In states that mailed pollin gplace location:
· 3% higher among those w/o high school diploma
In states that mailed sample ballots, polling place, and offered extended polling hours
· 10% higher among 18-24yr olds

This data is just from 2000 – other factors probably come into play here – such as specifics of that years races.

Source: Circle: state voter registration and election day laws. June 04
http://www.civicyouth.org
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Empiricial study of youth campaign in 2002 election in Michigan. Democratic party.

Cites Gren and Gerber’s key finding: the more personal a tactic, the higher its mobilization effect:
· Door to door: +8-10%. $12-20/voter
· Volunteer phone bank: +3-5%. $12-20/voter
· Professional phone bank: +0-2%. $140+/voter
· Leafletting: 0%. $40+/voter
· Direct mail: 0-1%. $40+/voter

Campaign in Michigan results:
· Door to door: +10% on target plus spillover effect brings household rate to 19%. $25/voter (@100% paid staff). $10 (@40% paid staff)
· Volunteer phone bank: +2.5% on target plus spillover effect brings household rate to 4%.. $19/voter (@100% paid staff). $8 (@40% paid staff)
· Door hanger: +1% on target plus spillover effect brings household rate to 2%. $58/voter (@100% paid staff). $23 (@40% paid staff)
The above results are focus on a youth only approach. If all ages are included – making door visits more efficient, the cost goes down for door to door to $4.50, Calls to $8, and door hangers to $15.

So, strategy recs are:
· to use calls in rural and apartment heavy areas.
· But limit calls on college campuses, where door to door is more effective.
· Increase cost effectiveness by not focusing exclusively on youth – add other age ranges into the mix.
· Door hangars to be left behind when door to door encounters someone not home.
· Including polling place info increases effect of phone calls (by 1.5%).
· Paid site captains with high levels of experience are worth the cost – they boost effectiveness by 6%.
· Efforts should start early and peak in final week of campaign.

Mobilizing 18-35 yr olds.

Source: Mobilizing 18-35 Year Old Voters. An analysis of the Michigan democratic party’s 2002 youth coordinated campaign. Ryan Friedrics. April 03.
http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/PAE/readapae/Friedrichs.pdf
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A candidate or party that gains loyalty of youth now, before opinions and beliefs set, can build a voting base for years to come.

ABOUT YOUNG VOTERS
Young Voter Types:
· Likely
o If you can connect with them, they will turn out on election day and may volunteer for campaign.
o Are presidential election voters.
o Trust govt. more
o Parents are voters
o More educated
o Many attend religious services
· Potential
o Similar demographic to the above
o Hot button is community involvement
o They are frequent volunteers
o Less likely to come from families that discuss politics
o Slightly higher percentage of women
· Unlikely
o Distrustfull of candidates and electoral process
o Not registered to vote – don’t think it’s omportant
o Never volunteers
o Parents didn’t vote or discuss politics
o Less likely to have an affiliation with an institution (college, church)
o Less likely to be conservative

What they want & know:
· effort to address their concerns
· advertising savvy
· that their votes are wanted
· want to see candidates more
· want candidates to listen
· want to share their concerns
· wand candidates to be approachable

How they decide their vote:
· candidate issue stands are most important, followed by record of service & experience, and character
· more independent of party than older voters

Party:
· even dem/rep
· ½ describe self as moderate
· not set in political party and are open to persuasion and recruitment
· Repubs: older (21-25), more men, more white, more religious, more out of school, concerned about taxes, iraq
· Dems (18-22): working women, African-american, health care, cost of education
· Independent: 21-22, not employed, non religious, crime & violence

REACHING YOUNG VOTERS
Talking to young voters
· statements on issues most important
· emails with issue positions are popular
· focus on issues in which they have a direct stake
· for candidates, most compelling facets are:
o being independent
o volunteering in community (non politically)
o problem solving
o that what candidate does matters
o that what young voters do matters
· approach
o authenticity
o listening
o commitment to young voters
o non partisanship

Connecting
· rely on tv, radio, newspapers, magazines, as well as internet
· internet is not silver bullet
o least receptive to internet will be those most involved – and vice versa
o unsolicited is turn off
o methods that invite participation and interaction work better
o unsolicited text messaging extremely unpopular

Outreach tactics
· web site, should feature
o candidate photo
o bio
o issue & record
o online voter reg
o voter reg info
o interactive questions/feedback
· radio
o 3rd party speaking about candidate
o stats that show power of young voter
o tell where can find more information
· Direct mail
o Personal statement
o Power of young voting bloc
o Quick access to issues
o Candidate events
· Op/Ed
· Famous Quotes re: elections & voting, democracy, rights & responsibilities, & citizenship

Campaign visits
· Reaching likely young voters
o colleges, community colleges, high schools
o party youth organizations
o politically oriented familes
o workplaces
· Reaching potential young voters
o Volunteer programs
o Women’s groups
o Religious groups

Debates
Getting youngs involved in participatory events like debates is a good idea. Best with non-partisan group.

TURNING OUT THE VOTE
· see friedrichs article
· older voters will support a candidate who reaches out to young voters – the trickle-up effect
· reminder to vote cards
· 18th birthday card

Source: Campaign for Young Voters Web site: http://www.campaignyoungvoters.org
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Post 2004 election survey of young people

Record #s of 18-39 yr olds turned out – particularly first time voters
75% plan to be more active in the political process in the future
of those who did not vote 46% said they will be registered next time
John Steward of Comedy Central is more trusted than 2 of the big 3 network anchors
Still network and cable news is main src of info.

“Increasing youth turnout in swing states could have affected the electoral outcome”
Kerry led Bush among non voters 47% to 33%.

Internet was used by 25% as primary information src. 62% of these voted for kerry, 36 for bush. First time voters 50% dem, 30% rep, 12% independent.
· younger the voter, the more likely to support kerry
· on issues kerry dominated among those who cited the economy and other domestic issues as most important
· most swing voters voted for kerry
· bush won older voters (26-29)
· won more of those with a college degree
· won 67% of those who regularly attend religious services
· 50% of votes for kerry were against bush – not for kerry

43% of 18-29yr olds either registered for the first time or registered at a new location. 66% of non-voters were not registered. “indicating that turnout among young voters can increase still further if greater efforts are made to inform them of voting requirements and the key dates involved. Knowing that Election Day was November 2 was important, but knowing when and where to register will help first-time voters overcome the hurdles of participation.”

“Registration remains the biggest obstacle to voting. Of those 18-29 year olds who didn’t vote, just one third were registered. It simply wasn’t the case that registered youths stayed home that day. This reaffirms decades of research that claims that increased turnout is a direct function of increased registration.”

Top Reason not to vote among registered voters
· too busy/ work or school conflict: 18%
· Didn’t like candidates/issues 10%
· Sick/disabled 10%
· Away/out of town 8%
· Tranport problems 6%

Non voters characteristics:
· younger 18-21
· less likely to attend religious services
· considerably less education
· a function of general disinterest

Source: The Emerging Electorate Report and Survey Press Release
http://www.declareyourself.com/press/PDFs/report04/EmergingElectorateSurveyReport.pdf
and
http://www.declareyourself.com/press/PDFs/report04/EmergingElectorateSurvey(Nov2004).pdf

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